Regressing Prometheus "disagreement with consensus" vs "realized surprise" might be more interesting? AFAIK nearly everyone who tries is able to to get a decent correlation of forecasts to realized. Not to detract from the model, just saying probably can find more compelling datapoints to prove reliability?
Looking at the CPI scatter plot, it looks to me that assuming Prometheus CPI 0.39%, actual CPI is skewed by dot density heavily to downside down to 0.1%
Does this mean Prometheus is likely to substantially overestimate CPI?
I think a Prometheus Macro Discord would be very interesting (if not overly distracting for you). There's next to nothing out there in Econ/Finance, but it's wildly successful in tech, music, and surely myriad other things.
Regressing Prometheus "disagreement with consensus" vs "realized surprise" might be more interesting? AFAIK nearly everyone who tries is able to to get a decent correlation of forecasts to realized. Not to detract from the model, just saying probably can find more compelling datapoints to prove reliability?
Pretty big miss from Prometheus but actually in line with scatter plot spread -- shows 'actual' can go to 0.1% when estimate at 0.39%
Impressive.
Fantastic article, as usual. Thank you
Looking at the CPI scatter plot, it looks to me that assuming Prometheus CPI 0.39%, actual CPI is skewed by dot density heavily to downside down to 0.1%
Does this mean Prometheus is likely to substantially overestimate CPI?
I think a Prometheus Macro Discord would be very interesting (if not overly distracting for you). There's next to nothing out there in Econ/Finance, but it's wildly successful in tech, music, and surely myriad other things.
Thank you for sharing your work with the community. Totally impressed!