Real GDP Contraction
"Now, while this data is a significant development, it is still in its early stages. We will receive more confirmation as the date evolves."
What econ data will be most impactful for your process over the next few weeks?
Curious to understand how your macro fundamental process intersects with other processes to inform your portfolio construction. Currently, I sense some dissonance between your thesis and the ETF portfolio positioning, so I presume there are more operations running in parallel.
Great content! I already really enjoyed the pdf about the systematic Prometheus ETF. I am currently building my own earnings model for the S&P500. When you guys are building macro models, are you using simple linear regressions, dynamic factor model, ARIMA or are you using a different statistical approach? You guys seem to have perfected the art of macro modelling! Thanks again for the great research!
Thanks Prometheus for the update; at least bonds are working as they should now in a multi asset portfolio. Today was the first time that “bad news is bad news” in a while, not sure why but hope it doesn’t last. Overall I’m in agreement with you regarding stocks and bonds higher at least for Q1!