Slowdown Continues: Long Stocks & Bonds
Always appreciate the weekly update on macro regime change - and grouping the portfolio into asset classes is much easier to see!
Thanks for the update. Question about the market regime monitor: is the 1-month probability the probability of each regime over the next month? And what are the YTD and Qrtr probabilities representing? For Qrtr, for example, is it the probability of what regime we will have for the full Q1? Thanks
Is the BIL ETF essentially the same has holding the short term treasuries so that there is no down side risk? I looked the chart and it was confusing.
Great content as always. Can you provide some background on the Timing Tools: Market Cycle Recognition? Are these trend following indicators? Also, it's very difficult to see. Could you graph it from a shorter term perspective to provide better resolution?